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As the first results begin to come in from Britain's closely-fought general election, an exit poll suggests the Conservatives, led by the Prime Minister, David Cameroon, will become by far the largest party. The poll, commissioned by the BBC and other broadcasters, pose the Conservatives on 316 seats in Parliament, just short of an overall majority. It says the main opposition, Labor Party, will trail in second place with 239 seats. Peter Kellner from the polling firm, YouGov, told the BBC there could be several reasons for today's poll.
“The first is that the exit poll is right, and all the polls that came out in the last 24 hours, ours is one of eleven, all eleven showed Conservative and Labor neck and neck. Second possibility is exit poll is wrong, and the eve of poll polls were right. Third possibility, something happened today. We interviewed six thousand people today and we could find no sign of any net movement in any direction. So I think we can rule out an on-the-day shift. Fourth possibility is it is somewhere in the middle that the Tories have done bits better than the eve of poll.”
英国竞争激烈的大选开始公布首批结果，选举后民调显示由首相戴维·卡梅伦领导的保守党将成为至今为止最大党。这次民调是由BBC和其他广播公司委托进行的，显示保守党获得议会316个席位，未能获得绝对多数支持，民调称主要的在野党工党以239个席位居于第二位。民调公司舆观的皮特·凯尔纳告诉BBC有几个原因导致了今天的民调结果。
“第一种可能是民调结果正确，在过去24小时内进行的民调中，我们是11个民调之一，所有的11个民调显示保守党和工党不相上下。第二种可能是民调结果错误，而民调之前的情况是对的。第三种可能是今天出现了一些情况，我们今天采访了6000人，发现没有迹象显示向任何方向变化。所以我想我们可以排除掉一天之内的变化。第四种可能是保守党在中间某个时候表现得比民调前更好了。”
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